Cisco Unveils Hosted Platform To Deploy Collaboration Applications In The Cloud Cliqset 2.0 Launches With Deeper Twitter Integration And Content Curation Warner Music Group Taps MTV For Content Partnership And Video Advertising Sales NuCaptcha''s Technology Uses Video To Decipher Between Humans And Robots Bling Nation Adds A Paypal Option To Cell Phone Payments Salesforce Chatterizes 10,000 Of Its Customers First Week After Public Launch Kontagent Raises $4.5 Million For Facebook Analytics Platform Microsoft''s Data Collection Technology PivotViewer Now Available For Download Expands In-Stream Ad Network To Twitter Apps comScore: Flash And Rich Media Ads Are 40 Percent of U.S. Online Ad Impressions Cloudera Launches Paid Version Of Enterprise Data Management Software Tesla Prices IPO At $17 Per Share Closing In On Chrome OS Launch, Key Architect Matthew Papakipos Jumps To Facebook RIM Ex-Employee: Prideful Leadership Killed Us, But There''s Still A "Real Shot" Motorola Droid 3 Launches In China, Possibly Hitting U.S. Shelves July 7 LG Sends Out Reminder For Delayed Optimus 3D, Sans New Launch Date Slacker Radio Launches Slacker Premium On The iPad Amazon Puts Nokia E6 Up For Pre-Order, Shipping In 1-2 Months Sony Ericsson Preps NFC For Android Phones Apple Patent Application Describes Location-Based Social Network O2 Dumps BlackBerry PlayBook Due To "Customer Experience Issues" Dual-Screen Android LG Slider Spotted In The Wild, Possibly T-Mo-Bound 25-Year-Old Indian Man Electrocuted To Death By Shanzai Phone Rumor: iPhone 5 To Sport Edge-To-Edge Display? Nokia Closes Online Doors, Swears Shutdown Is Unrelated To Poor Sales Verizon Extends Mobile Hotspot Promo For 4G LTE Smartphones To July 6 Rumor: Google''s Next Nexus To Be The "Nexus 4G?" T-Mobile Releases HTC Sensation 4G, And Kind Of Releases The Samsung Dart Samsung''s "Attempt To Harass" Apple Gets Rough Response Points Fingers At Carriers For Weak WP7 Sales Kinect specs posted: 640x480 at 30FPS, two players maximum Cute, cheap iPhone 4 mod: use modeling clay on the corners First shots of Optimus Popularis keyboard emerge Hulu Plus coming to Samsung TVs Pro tip: bring your own media to the store to check HDTV quality Tetris creator has been working on true multiplayer Tetris for "more than 10 years" Barnes & Noble financials: e-book store blowing up like what whoa Opportunistic law firm to launch class action lawsuit against Apple concerning reception issues? Instant Karma: Nokia pokes fun at iPhone 4 death grip, is quickly rebuffed iOS update to ship early next week, fix death grip issue? Doing my part for the iPhone 4 "death grip" meme The Plastic Logic Que is not, in fact, shipping The full story on Google''s remote app detonation from yesterday Doing my part for the iPhone 4 "death grip" meme That''s one elegant bike basket Zune suddenly takes real money in addition to MS points Numobiq Raises $4.5 Million A Round To Prove That The Network Is the Cell Phone Canaan Partners Raises a $650 Million Venture Fund With an Eye Towards India and Israel Reble, Reble, I Like Your Playlist Fring Adds File-Swapping To Its Mobile VoIP App
Amazon hires Disney SVP Kyle Laughlin as director of Alexa Gadgets
Apple’s battery cases return for the iPhone XS and XR
The Future Of TV Is HTML
This Week On Bullish: Can The Bold Italic Come Back?
Microsoft Drops New Windows 10 Mobile Build, Promises Faster Release Cadence
Cisco Pops 2.5% After Reporting Better-Than-Expected FQ4 Revenue Of $12.84B
Yahoo Sags 4% After Alibaba's Q2 Earnings Disappointment
Microsoft Postpones Ship Date For Its 'Surface Hub' Wall Computer To January
You Can Now Run Windows 10 On Your Mac
Microsoft Drops Another Windows 10 Update
Zulily's Buyout Spike Leaves It Less Valuable Than When It Went Public
Microsoft Launches New Windows 10 Build, Vows To Keep Its Early Access Program Alive

漂流瓶终于彻底拜拜 微信7.0.4新版体验
微信漂流瓶被玩坏了 聊聊漂流瓶里那些事
微信关闭漂流瓶 它曾经满足了我们对世界的好奇
[视频]惠普Chromebook x360 14 G1评测:搭载Chrome OS的商务变形本
借贷宝:停止催收百名裸条女大学生 未满23岁将不得借贷
京东白条多地频现盗刷 消费者遭催收公司“逼债”
借款野蛮催收行为将被规范 真是几家欢喜几家愁
为规范网贷催收 上海互金协会发行业倡议书
腾讯解释为什么微信没有夜间模式 真相你相信吗?

RIP Summer

当前位置: 艾金森 > 门户 > 海外资讯

点击量 123
编辑: 1   作者: Techcrunch   时间: 2019/6/11 14:48:01  

At some point things had to come back to reality. Even if only a little.

?After a multi-year bull cycle that raised the prices of domestic equities to levels that made value-focused investors squirm, the U.S. markets are suffering from a stiff correction, dropping in partial step with international?shares and other assets.

It’s a global cold, and everyone is sneezing.

Apple opened dramatically lower this morning, mirroring broad index declines. Twitter dropped?a few points in regular hours, and more after, trading below its IPO price. Box has fallen even more, also trading below its IPO benchmark.

Those three firms - the largest tech company by value, a mid-sized social shop, and one of best-known SaaS companies - represent different sectors, if you will, of the technology industry. Notably, their value declines are in keeping with their scale. Box fell the most today, Twitter took second (counting after-hours), and Apple’s final drop is the smallest.

Let’s make a number of broad claims, employing those three companies as examples; we could select other firms, but as we are all very comfortable with the financials of this?trio, we rest on firm ground.

A Correction Is Not Surprising

Signs?that things weren’t great in the global economy have been strident for some time. Dropping?markets, smoked commodities, falling shipping rates, slowing Chinese macro growth, a Eurozone stuck in neutral, Fed uncertainty, lackluster domestic wage growth, and slipping profit expansion among American firms lashed to high public multiples were all warnings. They are different sorts of warnings, but red lights all the same.

Also, happening just about?a year ago was a conversation inside of technology itself, arguing that the current financing environment is out of whack. Gurley, Andreessen and Wilson also spoke up. TechCrunch wrote about risk, bubbles and off valuations incessantly.

Despite plenty of sturm und drang, nothing much changed. Folks?nodded their heads and then bolstered their cash burn and non-GAAP losses.

A key question today is what the current decline in asset values is1. Is it a formal correction that will persist, or is it merely a drop brought on by global conditions that are hampering?American markets?

This brings us back to value. Why do we care about the price of public companies? Because in tech investing, things work backwards. Venture capital is the NASDAQ on steroids in the private sector, which directly links venture capital returns to how rich public valuations are.

There is lag in that relationship, but if public shareholders repudiate IPO shares, it casts a pall over other private valuations. So who is wrong? The investing groups or the venture shops with an interest in seeing pre-money figures on their portfolio companies continue to skyrocket? I’m more skeptical than enthusiastic.

If Twitter is trading below its IPO price, and is now worth less than the dollar amount that Snapchat wanted to raise capital at earlier this year while enjoying a massive revenue multiple, you have to wonder if the public is too hard on Twitter or if private kids are too bullish on Snapchat. The same tension exists between Box’s public valuation and Dropbox’s most recent private number. Who is off base?

But if social and SaaS are struggling in the public markets, then companies in those categories could have a hard time hitting go on an IPO, which means less liquidity, less return, and potentially a round of lower valuation growth.

That things are colder than they were is not a surprise. The scale, and timing, of our current retrenchment are notable for scale, but not for existence.

Startups That Are Still Burning Too Much Were Warned

Returning to our three venture capitalists, they did a fine job last year telling young companies that it might be a good time to lose less money. But those pronouncements were overshadowed by massive new venture funds, a quick investment cadence, and increasing valuations. Who wants to listen to people who are worried when there is a happy person standing next to them with a checkbook?

I’ve recently asked a number of venture capitalists if they are seeing LPs change their asset allocation away from venture. Nope. And that means we could still see a few decent cycles of new capital flow into startups.

But, as I wrote last year, in the middle of the startup Burn Rate Debate:

As long as interest rates remain low, and the public markets remain near record highs, an appetite for larger returns will manifest itself in large amounts of capital accessible to. So the game, for now, is still afoot.

The flip of that, if you want to stare at the market from the top, is simply that piles of public money are helping to keep private money stupid. Amplifying the above is the fact that large tech companies are cash-rich at the moment, boosting sale prices for companies both strong and weak. That money often ends up back in the cycle, and then it’s once more around the sun.

Things are different, a little, but quite a lot of the core strength that we’ve seen in terms of inputs that potentially bolster valuations are still in place. You can’t kill that momentum with a few days of public declines. Those same declines, however, could be the start of a momentum shift.

If This Is A Correction, Private Valuations Have To Give (Some)

If investors suddenly decide that the value of future earnings of technology companies will be lower than previously expected, the value of all tech shops declines.

There has been, I think, reticence among some late-stage startups to delay an IPO until their internal metrics better match the valuation that they hope to command from the public; if you let your valuation accelerate outside of your metrics, you can always work for a year and then hit go when the math adds up.

But if valuations in the public sphere are shrinking, that boosts the discrepancy between what the general populace will pay for your equity and what you last sold it at to private kids. That could mean a longer ramp to parity, the need?for additional private capital and, yes, the potential for a down round.

God forbid.

Let’s be clear: Valuations are not just high, they are in some cases humorous in a sad?way. As public markets hit the brakes, it can’t help but impact how?younger firms are valued.

Current VC Sentiment

If you hang out with venture capitalists - and I do not recommend it - ask them how they plan, and shape their investment patterns around macro conditions, both?current, and future. The standard answer in my experience is that the venture capitalist in question will hem, haw and?aww shucks you, and then say that if they could time the markets they would work for a hedge fund, and not a venture company.

It’s a lackluster answer, but one that has an odd bit of humility: VCs really don’t know what is coming. Think about how long ago Gurley, Wilson and Andreessen rang the bell; it's only now that we're really seeing a sharp enough decline to cause panic inside the industry.?And those are three of the smartest VCs.

But, given LP flow, large paper returns, and newly inflated?funds, there is little motive right now to dramatically change investing theses. Venture capitalists, after all, are often overly paid lemmings.

If This Drop Scares You, You Are Probably Overexposed

It could get worse. Markets may continue to fall. China could get itself into a full-on credit crunch. That would harm global GDP?growth for years, slowing demand for trade?and?the precise sort of animal spirits that the tech industry depends on to grow companies at far-higher rates than larger economic structures.

For now, however, may your 401k live on, and keep in mind: At least you didn’t get fired today.

1Insert Clinton joke here.